Recent in-depth survey suggests Justine Greening's seat under threat

Justine Greening MP

A recently published opinion poll is suggesting that Justine Greening’s Putney seat could be under threat were a general election to be called.

However, unlike the last time out, when she was run close by the Labour candidate, the latest data is suggesting that the Liberal Democrats would be the main challengers in the seat.

The survey was part of a national collection of data by Focaldata for the pro-Remain group Best for Britain and Hope not Hate. It put the Liberal Democrats at 29.7% in the Putney constituency with the Conservatives on 24.9%. Labour was third with 20.8% and the Brexit Party was predicted to achieve 13.6%

The polling seems to confirm the outcome of the recent European parliament elections in which the Lib Dems won the largest share of the vote in Wandsworth Borough. The same poll shows that the Lib Dems could also expect to win in Battersea.

A member of the party locally speaking in a personal capacity said, “ These numbers are not a surprise to us and show that the Euro poll wasn’t just a protest vote. People like Justine Greening but aren’t going to back a Remain supporting Tory in the hope of stopping Brexit and Labour’s position is too confusing even for them. Boris as Prime Minister just makes the situation clearer and bolsters our support. Labour could have won here at the last election if they had recognised how vulnerable it was and committed resources to the area but they missed their chance. The interesting wild card here is Chuka Ummuna. If he doesn’t get given the Richmond Park seat which looks a certainty for the Lib Dems then Putney might be a reasonable alternative. The poll data shows Labour holding Streatham and he has moved closer to Putney after getting married so it might suit him and he would be a very strong candidate.”

Overall the poll is pointing to the Liberal Democrats winning eleven seats in London with the Brexit Party taking three. Labour would lose three of its current seats but would win back all of the seats held by MPs who left to join Change UK.

The figures in the survey were compiled using multilevel regression and post-stratifcation or MRP. This allows projections to be made on a constituency level combining data from a large national sample with Office for National Statistics and local census data. This was the method used by YouGov in 2017 to predict a Labour victory in Kensington which was dismissed as improbable at the time until the result was announced.

The survey also shows that currently Boris Johnson would cling on with a tiny majority in Uxbridge with the Brexit Party in second place and Labour and the Lib Dems not far behind. Jeremy Corbyn looks very safe in his Islington North seat but next door Emily Thornberry could be in for a fierce contest.

We have asked Justine Greening for comment on the poll.

June 14, 2019