A ward by ward guide to the battle for control of Wandsworth Council

If the Conservatives were to lose Wandsworth Council it would send a shockwave through Westminster and have an impact on national politics that is difficult to predict.

With some suggesting a defeat might even require the Prime Minister to consider her position, others say that a successful defence of the borough might strengthen her hand as she manages the process of leaving the EU.

This site recently looked at the wards across the borough to see how the election would need to play out for there to be a change of control. Labour have to make a net gain of 12 seats and six of those they will be targeting are in wards which include parts of the SW15 post code area. Our analysis shows that they would require a swing of over 9% to gain the final seat that they need.

Below we look in more detail at the individual wards and it quickly becomes apparent that decisions made by just a few hundred voters in the area could be critical to the outcome. One thing that can be safely predicted about this election is that the votes in some wards will be very close.

With 75% of the borough's residents voting to stay in the EU at the time of the referendum and many local wards having a significant proportion of EU citizens who can vote in this election many electors may use their vote to make a point about Brexit. However, others will make their decision based on local issues such as housing, Council Tax rates and Heathrow.

The SW15 area is covered by five local wards in the borough elections. There are some parts of SW15 in Southfields ward as well. If you click on the ward name the results from May 2014 will be displayed:

East Putney Ward

East Putney would normally be regarded as a safe Conservative ward with one of the seats being held by the leader of the Council, Ravi Govindia. For him to lose his seat there would need to be a 12.6% swing to Labour which would be well above the increase in the vote share they need to take control of the borough. For Labour to take the other two seats in the ward there has to be an even bigger swing of over 16% With no UKIP candidate standing in the seat and one more Green than in 2014 it will be slightly harder for Labour to make gains in this ward.

The ward has a median age of 33 and, as at the 2011 census 13.8% of residents held passports from other EU countries.

Thamesfield Ward

Thamesfield is one of the Conservative's safest wards and the party would only have a handful of councillors left if there was a swing to Labour sufficient for them to take the three seats. The task is made more difficult by the Greens fielding three candidates and UKIP not standing this time around. One of the seats currently held in the ward was won in a by election in 2017.

It has a younger population than the national average with a median age of 33 and the 2011 census showed 11.6% of the population held passports with other EU countries which is well above the national average but less than some other wards in the borough. This suggests the Conservatives will be less vulnerable to an anti-Brexit vote than elsewhere.

West Putney

West Putney is another super safe Conservative ward which would require a swing of 18.8% for Labour to take all three seats. If that swing was uniform across the borough the Conservatives would be left with just three councillors. Labour's task is made even more difficult by an extra Green party candidate this time out and no representative of UKIP and that the seat is being contested by the three incumbents. They will be hoping that the 13.6% of residents with EU passports from other countries and the lower than national average mean age will mean that there is potential for a strong anti-Brexit vote in the ward.

Roehampton and Putney Heath

Labour gained the two seats in this ward they didn't hold in 2014 and, if national polling provides a reliable indicator they should manage to hold onto all three this time around.

West Hill

This ward is a key battleground in the borough with Labour needing to win at least two of three three seats if they are to gain control of the Council (assuming a uniform swing). Of the three councillors who currently represent the ward, two are not standing for re-election and one, Malcolm Grimston is running as an independent. There is no UKIP candidate standing this time and two rather than one Green which may tend to split the opposition vote. Even so, it would be a huge disappointment for Labour not to take some of the seats in this ward. It has a relatively young population with a median age of 32 and one of the highest proportion of EU citizens from other countries at 17.8% according to the 2011 census.

Southfields

The result in this ward is likely to have a major influence on who controls the Council after the election. Assuming a uniform swing, the capture of the second seat in this ward from the Conservatives would be the one needed for an overall majority. This would require a swing of 9.5% The three sitting councillors are running again as well as an extra Green candidate compared to last time and one from the pro-Remain party Renew. There is also a UKIP candidate in this ward but no independent as there was last time. With a median age of 33 and 12.8% of residents holding a passport from another EU country this ward is shaping up to be very closely fought.

Check if you are eligible to vote in the upcoming elections. You must be registered to vote by midnight on Tuesday 17 April 2018 to cast your vote at this election.

April 13, 2018